Where Are We Going?

First off, happy anniversary New Japan Pro-Wrestling! 

If you didn't already know, today is New Japan’s anniversary event, being held at the Ota City Gymnasium. It’s an interesting match lineup, with ELP facing a mystery opponent, the Bullet Club fracture being battled out in the 4th match (another post on that strife is coming soon), El Desperado’s 3rd title defense this reign (the match I am most interested in), and, in what is a pretty darn big deal, the main event is possibly Hiroshi Tanahashi’s last chance at capturing the IWGP heavyweight title before he retires.

Tanahashi’s challenging Goto is the match that has given me the most food for thought. I am pretty bad about guessing how matches and storylines will play out in NJPW (either that or, as a more fun theory, Gedo can read my mind and always decides “Yeah I’m definitely doing the opposite of what that fool thinks”). My initial idea on learning about this match was that Goto is a placeholder champion, that he is definitely going to lose to Tanahashi so Tana can have one last run with the title. Were that to happen, people who are way better at predicting this stuff than I am have postulated that the eventual end game of Tanahashi’s retirement tour is a final match with Shota Umino at next year’s Wrestle Kingdom, which Tana would lose, to cement the fact that the new generation has fully arrived and are expected to be the main stars from now on (supposedly this caused at least some of the booing towards Umino when he challenged ZSJ at KOPW, and subsequent incidents, as some fans, who also suspect this is where things are headed, think it’s too much too soon for him). If Tanahashi does win the title tonight, Umino would possibly win it at WK20, which would really make it clear that NJPW is going all in on the new generation.

However, another possibility could be that said match still happens, but Tanahashi wins and retires with the title. New Japan seems to have a thing for a person losing to a seemingly insurmountable rival one year, then coming back the next year (or 2 years later), presumably having learned from their last encounter and dedicating the time between matches to fixing whatever flaws caused them to lose last time, and finally achieving their goal . Tanahashi vs. Okada at Wrestle Kingdom 9 and 10, Okada vs. Naito at Wrestle Kingdom 12 and 14, and Ibushi vs. Okada at Wrestle Kingdom 14 and 15 are examples of that story playing out. Tana retiring with the title would be a nice additional feather in his cap, the New Japan Cup could be elevated that year to a tournament to crown a new champion, and it could take some of the heat off Umino and elevate him with the fans if he does a good job in the match. Of course, that creates a snag in the plot line as Tana retiring means he won’t be around (in the ring) for Umino to overcome, but a replacement on a similar level (who that would be on the current roster I need to think more about, but there are some people New Japan could bring back that would work well) or who is positioned as a protege of Tanahashi’s in some way could work (metaphorically defeating Tanahashi by defeating his avatar). That may be the best option if Tana maintains a regular presence in New Japan with his role as president.

Of course, all this is based on the assumption that Tanahashi is going to win tonight. While that was my initial vision about what would happen, I have had time to ruminate on my position. As it often does, my rumination has created doubts. One thing I have noticed about retirement tours in Japan is that the person retiring tends to lose during that time. Jushin Thunder Liger’s retirement had plenty of losses and time limit draws. It’s a way of thanking your opponents and putting them over as they need to (and technically should) remain looking strong as they will still be active after the other person is done. That has not been the case with Tanahashi thus far (he beat EVIL, had a time limit draw with Katsuyori Shibata, and beat Togi Makabe), but this could be where that changes. There has been a lot of promo material from New Japan about how Goto has never beaten Tanahashi. Goto getting the win over Tanahashi would be huge for Goto and would enhance the story that he has majorly upped his game since his loss to David Finaly at KOPW 24 last year, making him look like a much stronger champion. Not sure where a win for Goto would take Tana though. Maybe a last run in the G1? Though the talk of him struggling to keep up with the demanding schedule of the tournament may preclude that possibility. The match with Umino could still happen in this scenario though, it would probably end up being just a special singles match.

I am sure there are many other ways tonight’s main event could go, and New Japan often does surprise me. That is one of the reasons I like it so much though. The talent and depth of their roster is enough that, even if they pitch an absolutely wild curveball of a story, it still pretty much works. And yeah, I am aware that this was a whole lot of words to essentially say that I have no idea what is going on, but at least I am pretty sure that I will be satisfied wherever we end up.